In this year, the focus for WP3 is to apply the delivered static and dynamic compartmental models, and start the transferability task to the larger European region. To start the transferability task led by Syreon (Hungary), a hybrid meeting in Novi Sad (Serbia) was organized in April 2022. During the meeting the transferability of the model framework to other countries and the steps on the transferability of the input data of the models at hand was discussed. The team is currently busy with adjustments of the input structure of the model based on the discussion in Novi Sad. In Q3 of 2022 a virtual validation workshop on transferability will be organized to further formulate the recommendations related to transferability in order to transfer health economic models to countries with poor data access and availability.

The deliverable on the Q-Twist methodology has been handed in. In the report, the level of QALY assessment in ageing adults is evaluated that is readily available and accessible, and assesses methods to obtain such critical information about QALYs that will help populating the economic models developed by WP3 which evaluate new preventative interventions against infections in that age-group.

Regarding the country score tool, the team has developed the tool in 2 phases. A modified Delphi process was used to construct the tool. The process included a literature review, stakeholder consultation and three-round Delphi study involving eight national, supra-national decision-makers, and researchers with experience in immunization programs. Second, the tool underwent a pilot test in four countries (Netherlands, Germany, Serbia, and Hungary) to test comprehensibility, relevance, acceptability, feasibility, and transferability of the tool. The developed tool helps to address an unmet need in identifying strengths and weaknesses with regards to decision making and implementation of ageing adult immunization programs and identifying corresponding evidence generation priorities. The deliverable of the scoring tool will be prepared and delivered at the end of the year.

For the fiscal health modelling exercise, the team aimed to first apply a test case to the COVID-19 pandemic, to indicatively quantify the impact of COVID-19 on the Dutch government’s fiscal position, simultaneously indicating the value of preventive vaccines from a governmental payer perspective. The fiscal impact of the current pandemic highlights the importance of a broader approach to health-economic analysis. A fiscal health framework, optimally linked to a disease simulation model, is a better instrument to inform decision-making in the context of communicable diseases. The reported fiscal estimates also highlight the benefit of investments in communicable disease prevention such as anticipative development of vaccines. In the decision-making process around pandemic preparedness measures, investment funding and real-options can consequently be informed by a fiscal health framework. In the second half of this year, the team will work on transferring the knowledge acquired with this test case to a general framework for fiscal health modelling.

The second half of 2022, the team will be focussing on the integration of the different models with the broader value evaluation, e.g., fiscal health valuation. Next year, WP3 will be focussing on the usability of the final products coming out of the deliverables, and on the sustainability of the product beyond the VITAL project.