In September a WP3 face-to-face meeting at the University Medical Center Utrecht took place for the last discussions on the work and sustainability beyond the project.
Over the past year, RIVM and University of Utrecht, in collaboration with the University Medical Center Groningen, have developed an advanced age-structured epidemiological model to enhance vaccine deployment strategies.
Using a continuous age-based SIR model, this framework evaluates how demographic changes and age-specific variations in epidemiological parameters affect vaccine effectiveness for respiratory diseases like RSV. Data from the Actuarial Society of Netherlands informed age distribution, mortality trends, and contact rates, while vaccine parameters and seasonal transmission patterns were included to simulate realistic scenarios.
The initial focus on age heterogeneity originated from its role in transmission dynamics and disease outcomes, especially as demographic shifts of age increasingly skew populations toward older age groups. In addition, decision-analytic models accounting for interactions and stratification by, for example, frailty are still challenging, considering data availability over the full range of the model inputs as has been learned throughout the VITAL project.
Applying demographic changes and age-dependent variations is the first step in integrating heterogeneity and changing demographics of the older adult population into public health decision-making. WP3 is currently working on a publication related to this work.
VITALO Model
Led by Syreon Research Institute, the work on transferability of health economic research across Europe was finalized, focusing on adapting models like the VITALO decision-analytic model for lower-income countries. The VITALO model evaluates the cost-effectiveness of preventative interventions for acute respiratory infections, incorporating vaccine efficacy, protection duration, and disease severity.
Testing in Serbia highlighted the integration of local and high-quality foreign data to overcome data quality issues and emphasized strengthening local surveillance systems. Scenario analyses further explored the complexities of population health differences. Key recommendations include expanding geographic applications, enhancing data harmonization, addressing quality challenges, and fostering evidence-based policymaking.
Together, these insights aim to support effective, transferable health economic evaluations for impactful infectious disease prevention policies across Europe.
